For more than a century, oil has structured the world economy. A storable, transportable, exchangeable resource on a global scale, it has shaped industrial value chains, geopolitical balances and growth models. As uses decarbonize, it is electricity that takes over and becomes the structuring variable of the economic system.
This shift remains largely underestimated, because it is not a simple change in energy source, but a profound transformation of the energy regime, with the transition from a system based on stocks to a system constrained by flows, dependent on infrastructure, production capacities and a permanent balance between supply and demand.
A change in the nature of the energy system
If oil can be extracted, transported, stored and consumed in a deferred manner, electricity follows a different logic. It is difficult to transport over long distances, still has limited storage, and must be produced almost at the time it is consumed.
This physical constraint redefines balance. Where oil allowed a relatively fluid global market, electricity imposes a more localized system, heavily dependent on national networks and capacities. It transforms energy into an infrastructure issue as much as a production one.
Electrification as a driver of demand
The latest report from the Shift Project carried by Jean Marc Jancovici recalls that decarbonization is based on a profound transformation of uses, in particular on their electrification. This concerns transport, buildings and industry. As the document points out, “the massive electrification of equipment is essential for a thorough decarbonization of the French economy” .
Concretely, this development results in a gradual substitution of fossil fuels by electricity: electric vehicles, heat pumps, electrified industrial processes. In addition to these uses, there are new demands, particularly linked to the production of hydrogen or the development of data centers.
Not only does this transition not reduce overall energy pressure, but worse, it shifts it towards electricity. Electricity consumption is therefore expected to grow structurally, even in scenarios integrating efficiency gains.
An offer under pressure
This increase in demand occurs in a context where production capacities are not yet aligned. The report highlights that current production will not be enough to absorb future needs: “French low-carbon electricity production must increase significantly to enable electrification” .
Tensions appear on several horizons. In the short term, by 2030infrastructure deployment delays and network connection constraints can slow down the increase in supply, even as demand begins to grow under the effect of electrification. In the medium term, between 2030 and 2040uncertainties about the pace of development of nuclear power, particularly the timetable for EPR2, and renewable energies create a risk of a more structural imbalance between production and consumption. In the long term, by 2050the question becomes systemic: the capacity to produce sufficient low-carbon electricity conditions the entire decarbonization trajectory and the effective exit from fossil fuels.
The report warns against implicit trade-offs, giving up certain production sectors, or slowing down their deployment, exposes us to an electricity deficit in the coming decades. Conversely, accelerating without controlling demand can generate tensions of another type, particularly on networks and resources.
A system without a single solution
One of the major lessons of the report is the impossibility of relying on a single lever. Low-carbon electricity production must combine several sources. The document emphasizes that “giving up nuclear power or slowing down the pace of deployment of renewable energies means risking running out of low-carbon electricity” .
This interdependence creates a form of structural constraint. The electricity system cannot be secured either by nuclear power alone, nor by renewables alone, nor by reducing consumption alone. Each of these levers is necessary, but insufficient taken in isolation.
This configuration differs from the oil model, where the diversification of sources could compensate for local failures. In the electrical system, the room for maneuver is more limited where failures translate more quickly into operational tensions.
Electricity as a strategic asset
This change in regime gives electricity a special status. It no longer constitutes just a production input, but a structuring factor of economic sovereignty. The report recalls that decarbonization helps reduce exposure to energy crises, in particular those linked to imported fossil fuels.
In this context, access to abundant, low-carbon and competitive electricity becomes a decisive advantage. Conversely, supply constraints can weigh on industrial activity, slow down certain investments or guide location choices.
This evolution is accompanied by a return to planning. Decisions relating to the allocation of electricity, between industrial, residential or digital uses, take on a strategic dimension. They are increasingly a matter of collective arbitration, and no longer solely of market mechanisms.
Tensions beyond energy
The rise of electricity is part of a larger physical system. The report highlights that certain materials, particularly copper, are becoming constraining factors. It indicates that “the electrification of road vehicles (…) (is) one of the largest contributors to copper consumption” .
These tensions appear in particular over the period 2025-2035, identified as critical for the deployment of electricity infrastructure. They also concern industrial capacities, network construction times and the availability of qualified labor.
In other words, electricity does not constitute an isolated point of tension and concentrates the constraints of a larger material system, including resources, skills and infrastructure.
The question of uses
In this context, demand management appears to be a determining lever. The report emphasizes the need to control energy consumption, in order to secure the decarbonization trajectory. He emphasizes that it is necessary “control the consumption of different energies (…) to secure French decarbonization” .
This control involves transformations in uses: mobility, housing, organization of economic activities. It is not limited to gains in technical efficiency, but involves more profound, sometimes significant, developments. This point remains relatively little present in public debate. However, it constitutes a central variable: without reduction or stabilization of certain uses, the pressure on the electricity system could become difficult to absorb.
A shift in the energetic center of gravity
The transition from oil to electricity is not just a change in energy vector. It modifies the nature of dependencies and trade-offs. Where oil structured a global system, based on international exchanges, electricity reinforces internal interdependencies: networks, territories, uses.
This development also shifts power relations. The question is no longer just that of access to a global resource, but that of the capacity to produce, distribute and allocate locally constrained energy. In this context, electricity appears less as a substitute for oil than as a new point of balance, and potentially of tension, in the economic system.
