Donald Trump’s decision to impose massive customs duties on all imports, up to 54 % on certain countries, brutally redistributes international trade cards. For brands of consumer goods, this change of framework is not a marginal adjustment: it is a structural shock which calls into question their economic balance.
Immediate pressure on costs
In the majority of retail economic models, import costs represent a significant part of the final price. For businesses and boom, the share of imported products in the consumer price reaches 25 %. An increase of 54 % of customs duties therefore translates mechanically into an increase of 13 to 15 % of the final price. For brands, the choice is binary: absorbing this increase by reducing their margins, or fully passing it on to consumers, with a risk on demand.
Reality imposes a third way: arbitrate. Category by category, brand by brand, companies must decide where they can maintain their prices and where they must increase them without losing significant volume. This exercise presupposes fine knowledge of the price sensitivity, competition and elasticity of each range.
Three adaptation levers
1. Selective price repercussions
The first lever is that of differentiated pricing. Not all price increases are created equal. In health, beauty or hygiene products, some segments are not very sensitive to the price, especially in brands with high perceived value. These categories can absorb an increase without immediate loss of volumes. Others, more trivialized or competed with distributor brands, require more prudent treatment.
2. Reconfiguration of sourcing
The second lever is strategic: review the supply chain. Price increases target specific areas (China, Vietnam, Thailand, India). Companies with alternative suppliers in non -concerned countries, or capable of partially relocating their production, can reduce their exposure. This flexibility depends on the degree of dependence on certain know-how, the logistical constraints and the volumes concerned.
3. Rationalization of the offer
Finally, an adjustment of the product portfolio allows the shock to amortize. Reduction of the number of imported references, concentration on bestsellers, highlighting local or European ranges: this strategy aims to concentrate marketing and logistics efforts on the most profitable products or less impacted by new customs rules.
An unexpected opportunity: the disappearance of extreme low-cost
One of the immediate collateral effects of this pricing policy is the end of customs flaws used by platforms like TEMU, Shein or Aliexpress. These actors, who have so far benefited from exemptions for small direct packages to consumers, see their economic model weakened. The ultra low-cost segment, boosted by these channels, is brutally slowed down.
For more established brands, it is a window of opportunity. Less competition from the price, they can reposition their ranges, work the perceived value and regain market share in eroded segments for several years.
A strategic resilience test
This price shock acts as a revealer. It distinguishes rigid companies, dependent on a country or a low-cost model, from those that diversified their sourcing, segmented their pricing and consolidated their brand. In an uncertain environment, marked by trade tensions and geopolitical recompositions, resilience now involves the ability to control cost increases without compromising either profitability or demand.
