There is a moment, in every leader’s trajectory, when the fog sets in. The dashboards are vague, the forecasts uncertain, the signals contradictory… One observation: the markets change too quickly, the data is partial and certainties are crumbling. However, we must move forward, decide, decide. It’s one of the most puzzling paradoxes of modern leadership: leading without knowing. Or rather, lead knowing that you don’t know everything. However, the good leader is no longer the one who has the truth, it is the one who dares to act with 30% reliable information… and a good dose of discernment.
1/ The myth of rational decision
For a long time, managerial culture has maintained a quasi-scientific ideal: the right decision would be the one based on facts, analyses, solid figures. We trained managers to “reduce uncertainty” through data, market studies and business plans. But reality is responsible for reminding us of its limits.
Successive crises have shattered this illusion of control. Today, data is often incomplete, obsolete or contradictory.
2/ Fog, new normal for the manager
The term comes from the military: the “fog of war”, this fog of war which designates the permanent uncertainty about the intentions and capabilities of the adversary.
In the company, the “fog” takes other forms:
- customers with unpredictable behavior,
- regulations that change overnight,
- technologies that disrupt established models,
- broken teams and weak signals to interpret.
In this context, the manager can no longer aim for certainty. He must cultivate lucidity without demanding clarity.
Leading in the fog does not mean being lost, it means accepting to move forward without total visibility, relying on something other than data alone: intuition, experience, trust, the collective.
3/ Deciding with 30% reliable information: a new art of judgment
There is an unwritten rule, often cited in strategic management: “The best managers make their decisions when they have approximately 30 to 40% reliable information. No more. » Because waiting to know more often means letting the window of opportunity slip away.
The idea is not to decide blindly, but to know how to recognize the moment when the search for certainty becomes counterproductive.
In other words: the courage to decide replaces the impossible quest for “perfect knowledge”.
The modern manager’s equation: 30% reliable information + 70% judgment = 100% decision.
4/ Biases to deactivate to make better decisions in the face of uncertainty
Deciding in the fog is not natural. Our brain hates uncertainty. He looks for benchmarks, confirmations, known patterns.
Three mental biases are particularly dangerous for leaders.
Overanalysis bias
It’s the famous paralysis of analysis: we multiply tables, PowerPoints, hypotheses… until we no longer decide anything.
The remedy: set a time limit for reflection: “I make my decision on Friday noon, whatever happens. »
Confirmation bias
We look for information that reinforces what we already believe, rather than information that challenges our vision. The remedy: solicit contradictory points of view. A good leader surrounds himself with “constructive troublemakers” capable of challenging his convictions.
The omnipotent bias
Some leaders think they must know everything, master everything. This decision-making perfectionism exhausts them and blocks their organization. The remedy: agree to decide with, and not for.
5/ Intuition: this data that we do not measure
When data becomes uncertain, intuition gains value. Not magical or mystical intuition, but that which arises from experience, from memory, from accumulated feelings.
Numerous studies in neuroscience show that intuition is not an irrational emotion, but a form of rapid analysis based on thousands of micro-signals integrated by the brain.
Great leaders, whether they are soldiers, doctors or entrepreneurs, develop an ability to “sense” the right option without calculating everything.
It’s not primal instinct, it’s flash synthesis.
6/ Transform uncertainty into collective competence
One of the greatest traps of the leader is to believe that he must face the fog alone. In reality, collective intelligence is an essential navigation tool.
Multiply the sensors
Each employee, each client, each partner holds part of the truth. The role of the manager is no longer to possess the information, but to pass it on, cross-reference it, connect it. Some companies go so far as to set up “perception units”, cross-functional teams responsible for observing weak market signals.
Create quick feedback loops
In the fog, more than strategy, it is the speed of adjustment that counts. Better an imperfect decision revised quickly than a perfect decision taken too late. Agile leaders install short feedback rituals: weekly check-ins, quick tests, small-scale team reviews.
Promote the transparency of doubt
Recognizing that we don’t know everything is also an act of leadership.
Teams do not expect an omniscient leader, but a leader who knows how to deal with uncertainty while staying the course.
7/ The quiet courage to decide
Deciding in the fog is not being reckless, it is being lucidly courageous. It’s knowing that there will be no good solution, only the best possible at that precise moment. However, the quiet courage of the modern leader is the one who does not seek certainty, but relevance in the uncertain.
8/ Some concrete practices to better navigate the vagueness
Set a “compass” rather than a plan
When visibility is low, there is no point in writing 3-year plans. Instead, define a clear compass: the mission, the values, the general direction. It is this benchmark that guides decisions when everything is shaky.
Favor small-scale experimentation
Test, observe, adjust. Start-ups have understood this for a long time: a prototype is better than a PowerPoint.
Trust weak signals
A customer who changes their behavior, a recurring complaint, an employee who expresses discomfort: so many small alerts to listen to before they become storms.
Decide as a small group
The best decisions in times of uncertainty are often made by 3 or 4 people: enough to combine points of view, not too many to avoid dilution.
Focus on consistency rather than certainty
You may not know if the decision is “right” in an absolute sense, but it should be aligned with your vision and values. It is this consistency that creates trust around you, even in uncertainty.
9/ Humility, the invisible compass
As the world becomes unpredictable, humility becomes a strategic quality.
It is no longer the opposite of leadership, but its condition. Recognizing that we don’t know, that we learn, that we adjust, is what allows an organization to stay alive.
Humility makes curiosity, listening and questioning possible: these are all essential skills for leading in the dark. The humble leader is not indecisive. He is aware that clarity is built by walking.
