Vision Fund 2 displays more than $ 22 billion in cumulative losses, or nearly a third of the capital invested since 2019, and yet SoftBank action has reached a historic higher of 14,825 yen, promoting the $ 146 billion group.
The reason is in one name: Openai and Masayoshi Son, faithful to its spectacular blow strategy, now concentrates its hopes on a single bet likely to erase years of losses.
Originally, Vision Fund 2 was to be an example of diversification. But for lack of external investors, Masayoshi Son rose to 17.25 % of the fund, partly funded by a pledge of nine million of its own SoftBank shares. The fund invested in 280 companies, in a context of post-mortem WeWork where the promise was to avoid any excessive concentration.
This guideline is now broken, SoftBank having already injected $ 9.7 billion into Openai and forecasts an additional $ 22.5 billion by the end of 2025, to a pre MONEY valuation of $ 260 billion. In the event of realization, Vision Fund 2 could hold up to 12 % of the capital of Openai, representing 34 % of its assets.
This rise in power is based on financial engineering where SoftBank borrows from Japanese banks, then ready for vision of Fund 2, which itself contracted funding with the private lender Apollo, which benefits from a priority reimbursement right. This assembly increases the lever effect, and therefore the potential magnitude of gains … but also losses.
Another questioning point, will future investment be housed in Vision Fund 2, including Masayoshi Son, is a direct shareholder, or on the assessment of SoftBank, for the benefit of all shareholders?
If the valuation of OpenAi reaches $ 500 billion as anticipated in the sale of shares to employees, Vision Fund 2 could halve its losses and restore Masayoshi its strategic room for maneuver. Conversely, a reversal of the AI market or a regulatory shock could destroy this bet, with direct repercussions on the parent company and on its personal exposure. It is the essence of the model that he has applied for four decades: a mega-investment to overthrow the table, even if it means transforming the master stroke into a Russian roulette.
